On the recent unrest in countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen

by Abu Daoud

Well, what can I say?

I have been surprised by the outbreak in massive riots in Egypt, and lessed such events in Yemen and Jordan. What really seemed like the moment when 'the levee's gonna break' was when folks in Egypt started calling for the resignation of Mubaarak.

You see, you can have riots, even violent, destructive ones, in the Middle East, for certain causes, like Islamic stuff (of course), and anti-American and anti-Israel stuff (of course), and even maybe for rather pragmatic things like the price of bread or sugar of tomatos. You can even call for new elections or a new parliament or a new group of ministers (the new boss...same as the old boss), a la Jordan. But you can't call for the top guy to be replaced, or to leave, or to step down, or anything. In fact, you should not even mention him, unless you are saying, hey this guy needs to save us from these corrupt jerks. Then it's ok.

Well, that's not what is happening in Egypt. The police are out of play, widely despised by people in general. Now the military has been called in, and what of that? Even if one or two main commanders tell their troops, you know, we're here to defend Egypt from Israel and Libya and fill-in-the-blank, so we're just not going to get invovled in this, either way....well, that will end up being decisive. If a couple of influential commanders do that, then a new regime in Egypt is not impossible.

But if the military by and large obey their orders (which seem illegitimate to me, but then again I'm American), then sooner or later, perhaps after much bloodshed, the iron will of the Mubaarak Dynasty will be enforced upon all.